Individual Market Review (Essay Sample)
Assignment task: What do I need to do?
Part 1: Individual Market View Report (20%)
Each of you is part of a team and is required to conduct independent research
that will feed into your group report. This research consists of outlining and
explaining the behaviour of a self-selected pair of exchange rates over the
past (i.e., your interpretation of historical data). Your team will select from the
following currencies: USD, AUD, JPY, GBP and EUR. You must exclusively
choose from currencies listed here and make sure each team member is
studying a different currency pair.
This individual part should be a maximum of 700 words in length with a
tolerance of + 10%.
In this task, you are required to do some research in order to form a view
regarding current and future market conditions.
Do you think that exchange rates will go up or down in the next 3 to 6
months?
Explain why you believe the currencies are going to move in these
directions?
For this, you should first identify the economic factors that influence the
foreign exchange rates (review the course materials). Then you should collect
and use financial news and news regarding national and international events
which are likely to have an impact on the market.
For news and market data, you may access Eikon Online, a professional
financial data platform used by industry practitioners and experts.
Do not simply quote other people’s opinions. You should present your opinion,
and explain in your own words why you hold that opinion in a way that shows
that you understand the theory behind the determination of the exchange
rates. You can certainly quote evidence that supports your opinion, and this
evidence must be correctly referenced (do not submit copies of your collected
articles with your report).
For your view, you should use at least five references.
Very important: You should conduct thorough research and discuss
your market view prior to developing your trading strategies as a team
in the next stage.
The format for the Market View is detailed below:
Font type: Arial
Font size: 11pt
Spacing: 1.5 line spacing
Heading: Numbered as 1 XYZ, 1.1 LMN, 1.1.1 STU, maximum three-level
Page No: Page X/Y, bottom-right corner of each page, font size: 9pt, font
type: Arial
Individual Market Review
Foreign exchange rate is a primary determinant in business operations for multinational corporations. It affects cash flows for import and export transactions, and foreign investment decisions. The continuous change in values on international currencies indicates that a Chief Financial Officer has a daunting task in monitoring exchange rates movement. The concept of foreign exchange rate posits that different currencies have varying prices for various goods and services. Hence, this variation makes it possible to price one currency in terms of another. Demand and supply forces affect the commodities market, which then ultimately determine whether currency value goes increases or declines. Numerous economic factors influence foreign exchange rates including inflation, interest rates, trading volumes, and money speculation.
Inflation is a crucial factor in evaluating the strength of local and foreign currencies. It implies that there is excess money supply vis-à-vis the available goods and services, which cannot increase in time to regulate the prices or reduce inflation (Madura, 2011). Hence, exports lose their competitiveness and the prices of imported goods decreases. This scenario leads to an upsurge in imports consequently increasing the demand for foreign currency and weakening the subject nation’s currency.
Financial institutions lend money to borrowers and expect an interest amount for the total term of the loan. The basis of interest rates can be days, weeks, months, or years. High interest rates attracts investors to buy a currency and thus increase its demand in the process (Madura, 2011). Changes in interest rates are also affect the borrowing power of consumers and companies. Therefore, this affects the cash flow in the country and eventually the foreign exchange market. Interest rates have a negative correlation with exchange rates. For instance, if a nation wants more US treasury bonds, the demand for USD increases and makes it more expensive thus weakening the local currency.
Other factors such as money speculation and trade volatility are also decisive in evaluating foreign exchange rates. Major equity and bond markets have high levels of exchange rate volatility compared to countries that have lesser market participation (Moosa & Bhatti, 2009). High trading volume indicates high levels of speculation in the market, which leads to high price volatility of currencies.
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