Evaluate the Effect of Osama Bin Laden's Death on Al-Qaeda (Essay Sample)

Death of Osama Bin Laden: Effect on Al-Qaeda
Presented by: Teresa Mulomi
Institutional Affiliation: Daystar University
Osama Bin Laden (OBL), an arch-terrorist and founder of the Al-Qaeda, was assassinated on May, 2011 in a covert US operation (Kitfield, 2013). By the time of his death, Osama had been linked to several terrorist activities including the September, 11 attacks that claimed the life of nearly 3000 people (Minniter, 2012; Michaels, 2012). It was hoped that his death would dismantle or cripple the Al-Qaeda, a terrorist network formed and led by OBL. Three years down the line it is still not clear whether OBL’s death crippled, dismantled or strengthened the terror network. This essay intends to discuss the discourse and assessments that have evolved three years after his death to explain its impact on Al-Qaeda.
Even before his death, experts had predicted one of three outcomes for Al-Qaeda in the event of his death; one was that, his death would have no effect on the group, secondly, his death would lead to violent retaliations from the group or the group activities would be crippled (Mayer, 2012). Three years down the line, events appear to support the last scenario. The assassination of key leaders and strategists like Atiyah Abd al-Rahman and Anwar al-Awlaki seem to have weakened the groups influence and operational activities (Jenkins, 2012). The group is now more decentralized with units strewn around the world, their agendas have become more localized and its recruiting and radicalizing new distant groups to carry out attacks for them (Maher, 2012).
Due to the weakening of its central planning system, Al-Qaeda’s strategies and alliances have shifted and changed over the years. Al-Qaeda is believed to have relocated its key base of operation from Pakistan and Afghanistan to either Yemen or Somali. This is because the percentage of terrorist attacks sparked off from Pakistan and Afghanistan have declined from 100% to 75% in 2001 to 50% in 2010 (Kitfield, 2013). It is also believed that Ayman al-Zawahiri succeeded Osama Bin Laden as the terror network’s leader.
The rise of self-proclaimed mujahids and terror networks affiliated to the Al-Qaeda has also been a key occurrence after the death of OBL, (Michael, 2012). These shoot offs; the Boro Haram of Nigeria responsible for killing hundreds of Christians in Nigeria and the Al-Shabab from Somali responsible for multiple bombings in the East African region have pledged their alliance and commitment to Al-Qaeda.
Self-proclaimed, lone jihad warriors are also emerging as great terror threats. This terrorists carry out attacks on their own, with no orders or direction from terror networks but are guided by the philosophies and ideas propagated by OBL and his extremist group. For example, Mohamed Merah a self-proclaimed mujahidin (Islamic warrior) killed seven people in Europe.
Michael (2012) however warns that although the death of OBL, the assassination of key leaders and subsequent strife by US soldiers may have suppressed the group’s activities, Al-Qaeda is far from defeated. This is due in part to Al-Qaeda's ability to insulate themselves from leaders (Lia, 2011). Maher and Neumann (2012) suggest that Al-Qaeda’s ability to base their movement on ideology instead of specific individuals or leaders proves effective in enabling transitions from one leader to the next. Therefore, despite the death of a messenger, the message lives on and more messengers rise to spread it.
It can therefore be argued that although the death of OBL may have uprooted a figurehead, his ideologies of global jihad against local and far enemies continue to spread and strengthen Al-Qaeda’s commitment to violence and terrorism. Ideology unlike people is hard to kill, and for as long as this jihad ideologies continue to live on, the fight against terrorism is far from over. This is because; more terror networks will emerge, probably under different names, but subscribing to the same ideology. A case in point is the Al-Shabab and the Boro Haram.
The death of Osama bin Laden is believed to have crippled Al-Qaeda activities, which have reduced in scope, focus and intensity over the past three years. As a result, the groups’ strategies and alliances have shifted and changed as they moved their operation base from Afghanistan/Pakistan to Somali/Yemen and they have also elected a new leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. However, although the group has been subjugated, jihad ideology continues to thrive. With this ideologies do...