Military Decision Making Process: Running Estimate (Essay Sample)

Military Decision Making Process
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Military Decision Making Process
Question 1: Running Estimate
Facts and Assumptions: The six ranger battalion together with Alamo scouts and Filipino guerillas are tasked with a mission to rescue 511 allied and American prisoners from a Japanese compound that is close to Cabanatuan. Critical to the debate is the reality that the rangers were all volunteers. Lieutenant General Walter Krueger selects Lieutenant Colonel Henry A. Mucci to head the mission. It is also notable that the compound where the prisoners are held would present a challenge to Mucci. This owes to the reality that the compound is not only behind the enemy lines, but is also within the regular roads of Japanese troop’s movements. Further, the Japanese have evacuated most of the prisoners implying that the remaining prisoners could be killed or evacuated at any time. It follows that the six ranger battalion should attack the prisoners’ camp by surprise and evacuate the prisoners before their enemies can regroup and resist the intrusion, or pursue them towards their friendly lines.[King, Michael, "Rangers: selected Combat operations in World War 1," Combat Studies Institute 1985: 1-70.]
Planning and Preparation: Apparently, the conditions surrounding the mission require sufficient planning and preparation for it to turn out successfully. Consequently, it is necessary that maps of the area and aerial photographs taken by airplanes flying over the enemy lines be present. Analogously, Alamo scouts would be useful in the mission because they will spy on their enemies. In simple terms, the scouts will leave the ranger’s camp on 27th January and head towards the guerilla’s headquarters at Guimba. In the headquarters, native guides will join the scouts and head for the Platero, which in north of the main objective. They will contact guerillas at Platero and maintain the compound under constant surveillance. Critical to the discussion is the fact that the surveillance is meant identify who the guards are, the size of Japanese troops, and the guards’ routines. This information will be given to the rangers for final planning and preparation.[ibid]
Maintaining Secrecy: Rangers tramped via the grasslands to elude detection from Japanese soldiers. Guerillas avoided making noise by putting chickens into cages and muzzling dogs to prevent enemies from hearing the rangers’ movements. Further, scouts were used to spy on enemies who reported back to the rangers about enemies’ activities. Ultimately, the rangers planned to avoid detections on the flat terrain surrounding the rescue camp by crawling towards the camp. As a result, an airplane was used to distract the enemies by making them focus on the sky. The rangers did to help with secrecy is to notify the villagers and to ask them to leave (if they feared for their life) but do so in small numbers to not alert the Japanese.[King, Michael, "Rangers: selected Combat operations in World War 1," Combat Studies Institute 1985: 1-70.]
Japanese Forces in the Area: Nellist, Rounsaville, and Pajota report of the presence of large Japanese forces in the area. Specifically, the highway before the camp had been travelled by a large number of Japanese forces who were withdrawing from the aggressive force of American forces in the friendly lines. Further, two to three hundred enemy forces are reported present on Cabu creek. Pajota’s men (guerillas) also report one Japanese division at Cabanatuan City, which is less than four miles to the south of the main objective. It is also reported that the seventy three Japanese forces guarding the camp always drive their attention towards flying airplanes. Scouts verify what Nellist, Rounsaville, and Pajota report and add that a new force of Japanese forces was marching from the Southwest towards Bongabon. A single Japanese fires back at the rangers, but the Japanese is quickly spotted and killed. Japanese forces from the surrounding hear shots, but cannot attack the area because of the defenses set around the rescue camp (including blowing up the bridge). The guerrillas hold off Japanese forces as the Rangers and prisoners of war escape.[Rottman, Gordon L. The Cabanatuan Prison Raid - The Philippines 1945. Oxford: Osprey Publishing Ltd, 2012.]
Terrain and Weather: The most critical aspect concerning the terrain is the route to use to approach the compound and enter into the compound. The flat terrain surrounding the compound presents a serious challenge for the Rangers in terms of approaching without being spotted. To counter this challenge, the Rangers can initiate the assault at the early morning hours in order to take advantage of the darkness and to take the night guards by surprise. The rangers can either approach from the rear or from the front or from both sides. In this case, the most appropriate approach to could would be to approach from both the rear and the front all at the same time in order to ensure that they do not arouse any attention from the enemy. Alternatively, the rangers could crawl on their stomachs for one mile to reach the compound.[Sean, Tzeng, and K. C. Chang. "Manage TOWARD SUCCESS--Utilization of Analytics in Acquisition Decision Making." Defense Acquisition Research Journal: A Publication Of The Defense Acquisition University 22, no. 2 (April 2015): 192-224. ] [Herring, Thomas, E. "The Official Publication of the United States Army Ranger Association, Inc. Dedicated To the Ideals and Principles of the American Military Ranger," Ranger Register, 2005 XII, (3): 1-11.]
Troops and Support Available: One such support that is available is the Pajota guerrillas that would lay the roadblock to cover the bridge and highway on Cabu Creek and other routes that the Japanese can follow to cross the river. The 200 additional men brought by Pajota armed with heavy machine guns will cover the Creek to ensure that the Japanese do not cross over at any point. The combat operation also needs a standby aircraft that can strike the Japanese at the Cabanatuan town just in case they force their way past the roadblocks.
In addition, the operation needs an aircraft that can be used to make a buzz over the compound hosting the prisoners in order to cause tension and confusion and to divert Japanese attention to allow the Rangers time into the compound. The air force also provided aerial photographs that were used to plan for the attack. Additional support came from Alamo scouts who spied on the camp and provided Intel, which was used to plan and prepare for the mission. Local civilians also provided support in terms of Intel food, security, logistics and water.
Time Available to Conduct the Mission: The American soldiers were informed of the mission to rescue prisoners of war on 26th January 1945. The team had five days to plan, prepare, and execute the mission. Planning was conducted for two days before execution began. Additional information emerged on the third day, which forced the rangers to alter their strategy and preplan their mission. Preparation of the mission took a day, where the rangers organized defenses around the rescue camp. The mission was executed in one day.[King, Michael, "Rangers: selected Combat operations in World War 1," Combat Studies Institute 1985: 55-77]
Local Civil Considerations: Local civilians will play a crucial role in the success of the mission. The battalion will befriend civilians to gain their support in pursuing their mission. For instance, the guerillas will instruct locals north of the Cabanatuan City to remain in their location, but detain any outsiders who enter the location until all the prisoners are free. Additionally, civilians close to the main objective will be asked to leave slowly to prevent the Japanese from being suspicious. They will maintain communication between the main body at Platero and scouts and convey intelligence reports to Mucci. Further, armed villagers will be left at the Platero to provide security to a radio crew that was left behind. The Civilians will also provide rangers with Carabao carts that will be used to ferry the prisoners of war. Above all, the civilians will provide rangers and prisoners of war with food and water as they march to friendly lines.[Herring, Thomas, E. "The Official Publication of the United States Army Ranger Association, Inc. Dedicated To the Ideals and Principles of the American Military Ranger," Ranger Register, 2005 XII, (3): 1-11.]
Analysis, Conclusion, and Recommendations:
The objective of the Rangers was to gather intelligence, shake up the Japanese forces, and rescue prisoners of war. The mission was planned effectively, by including efforts from rangers, the Alamo scouts, guerillas, airplane reconnaissance, and civilians into the plan. This owes to the reality that the Alamo scouts and civilians provided the battalion with Intel that was used for planning the mission. Further, the civilians provided the battalion with food, armed security, water and Carabao carts that were used in the mission. The rangers, guerillas, and scouts not only participated in the planning, but also in the actual rescue of prisoners. It is crucial to highlight that the initial plan to invade the camp was altered after General Mucci received new Intel, which forced the battalion to attack the Japanese after a day.
A plane was also used to distract Japanese guards from watching the ground. However, it was unclear whether the distraction using an airplane would work because the tactic had not been used before. Above all, secrecy and help from guerillas and locals was meant to ensure the mission is successful. It was particularly evident in the entire operation from the attack to evacuation on the prisoners. For instance,...