TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Statistics Project Sample)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS {Name of Student} {University and Department} {Course} {Instructor Name} {Date} 1 Analysis of S&P 500 * 5-Year Weekly Candle Chart Based on the 5-year weekly chart and 50 and 200 period moving averages it can be inferred that the S&P 500 index is on an upward trend. The preceding is because the 50 period moving average is above the 200 period moving average. Even though a golden cross is not immediately visible in the examined timeframe, the consistent position of the 50 period moving average above the 200 period moving average indicates a bullish trend. Figure SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 1. 5-year weekly candle chart; (source: Trading view) Furthermore, both the 50 period moving average and 200 period moving average slope in the upwards direction indicating a strong bullish trend. Notably, both the moving averages are acting as support for the trend since from the chart the prices are generally above the indicators and have only been tested twice across the timeframe of analysis. * 1 Year Daily Candle Chart The 1 year daily candle chart of the S&P 500 index is presented in figure two below alongside the 50 period and 200 moving averages. Again, the 50 period moving average is above the 200 period moving average indicating a strong upward trend. Further, the 200 period moving average acts as support for the trend while the 50 period moving average does not. Even so, the trend is strongly bullish. The slopes of both moving averages faces upwards supporting the observation that the S&P 500 is strongly bullish. Figure SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 2. 1-year S&P 500 daily candle chart with 50 and 200 moving average and volume indicator; (source; Trading view) * View of the market based on charts From the two charts in Figure 1 and Figure 2 respectively, it is notable that the market is strongly bullish. This can be justified by the position of the 50 period moving average above the 200 period moving average. Furthermore, both moving average slopes are facing upwards indicating a strong bullish trend. The moving averages also act as support where prices test and revert upwards. Therefore, it can be inferred that the market is strongly bullish based on Figure 1 and Figure 2. 2 Five Year Weekly Bar Chart of your Stock * Log-scale on balance volume indicator Figure 3 below presents a 5-year weekly bar chart of COO stock and a log-scale on balance volume indicator. Markedly, the on balance volume indicator serves to use changes in volume to predict changes in the price of a stock. It can also be understood as a measure of momentum to explain the buying or selling pressure in the market of a stock. In the current analysis, the on balance volume indicator oscillates up and down periodically over the 5-year time frame and is currently on a down trend. The preceding indicates selling pressure of the COO stock. Markedly, there is no divergence in the price trend and the on balance volume indicator indicating that the COO stock is on a downtrend. Figure SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 3. Five-year weekly bar chart with a log-scale on balance volume indicator;( source: Trading View) * Log-scale volume by price indicator Figure 4 below presents the 5-year weekly bar chart of COO stock and the Volume by Price indicator. Notably, the purpose of the indicator is to explain the volume given a specified price range. From the volume by price indicator, it can be observed that there is high volume in the price ranging from 91 to 104 of the COO stock. The high volume cluster is lower than the current price of COO. The latter observation coupled by the trend in the bar charts suggest that the price range at the high volume cluster may act as support for the trend. Essentially, it can be inferred that buyers are interested in the price and may enter the market if the price declines to that level. Figure SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 4. 5-year volume by price of COO; (source: Trading View) 3 One Year Daily Bar Chart of COO with 9 and 14 period RSI at the Bottom Figure 5 below presents a 1-year daily bar chart of COO stock with a 9 and 14 period RSI at the Bottom. In the current analysis, the COO stock is considered overbought when the 9 and 14 period RSI are above 70 while it is considered oversold when they are below 30. Table SEQ Table \* ARABIC 1. Overbought levels and the respective dates for 9 period RSI and 14 period RSI; (Source: Author) Overbought based on 9 period RSI Overbought based on 14 Period RSI Trend Based on 9 period RSI overbought on Tuesday 14 November 2023 with RSI of 71.22. Based on 9 period RSI overbought on Thursday 14 December 2023 with RSI of 77.28. Based on 14 period RSI overbought on Thursday 14 December 2023 with RSI of 71.45. Based on 9 period RSI overbought on Wednesday 27 December 2023 with RSI of 77.28. Based on 14 period RSI overbought on Wednesday 27 December 2023 with RSI of 72.66. Based on 9 period RSI overbought on 4th March 2024 with 72.23 Based on 9 period RSI overbought on 16th May 2024 with 70.21 Based on 9 period RSI overbought on 1st August 2024 with 71.73 Based on 9 period RSI overbought on 29th August 2024 with 85.85 Based on 14 period RSI overbought on 28th August 2024 with 70.24 and remained overbought rising RSI 83.98 on 16th September 2024 and remained overbought up to 24th September 2024 with RSI of 70.24 From 29th August 2024 COO remained over bought up to 16th September 2024 with a 9 period RSI of 90.90 There is a clear up surge in the price as evidenced by an upward price gap On 23rd September 2024 COO remain overbought at 9 period RSI of 70.21 From the table above there are more than 9 individual cases of COO being overbought over the 1-year period under scrutiny when using the 9 period RSI. By contrast there are at least 4 individual cases of COO being overbought when using the 14 period RSI. The table below presents the oversold levels of COO and their respective dates for both the 9 period RSI and 14 period RSI. Oversold based on 9 period RSI Oversold based on 14 Period RSI Trend Based on 9 period RSI COO became oversold on 10th April 2024 with an RSI of 29.35 and remained oversold up to 22nd April 2024 with an RSI of 28.86. On 17th April 2024 the RSI was 13.21 indicating strong overselling. Based on the 14 period RSI, COO became oversold on 12th April 2024 with an RSI of 29.72 and remained oversold reaching a low of RSI 23.32 on 17th April 2024. COO remained oversold up to 22nd April 2024 with an RSI of 29.30. There is clear downward trend in the price of COO Based on 9 period RSI COO became oversold again on 24 June 2024 with RSI of 29.35 and remained oversold reaching a low of RSI 15.74 on 5th July 2024. COO remained oversold up to 10th July 2024 with an RSI of 29.86 Based on 14 period RSI COO 28th June 2024 with an RSI of 29.72 and remained oversold reaching a low 25.45 on 3rd July 2024.COO remained oversold up to 10th July with an RSI of 29.30 Figure SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 5. One Year Daily Bar chart of COO stock with 9 and 14 period RSI; (source: Trading View) From the analysis of OB/OS levels it is evident that the 9 period RSI is more sensitive to price changes than the 14 period RSI. Further, the overbought levels identified in Table 1 and Table 2 above that align with the tr...