Conflict Assessment & Prevention: GERD Dispute (Term Paper Sample)

Conflict Assessment & Prevention: GERD Dispute Student’s Name Class Information Date What was once a source of life for Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia has instead become a cause of strife, a natural resource that many people consider to be a blessing. Whose water is it when a body of water travels from one nation to another? This appears to be the query for which there is no response. Brief Explanation of GERD Dispute and Reasons for Rising Tensions Ethiopia supplies 85 to 95% of the Nile River, but owing to a variety of factors, including a disagreement between Ethiopia and Egypt and their respective economic capacities, has not been able to reap many benefits from it . According to Abdelhaleem, Ethiopia's population has a specific need for electricity supply, which is expected to grow by 25% annually and reach 35% soon. To meet this demand, Ethiopia plans to take benefit of the Nile River's location as a major water source and capitalize on it. Ethiopia has started work on a massive project known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) close to the Sudanese border on the Blue Nile in response to their nation's demand for electricity supply. Because the Nile River flows through 11 nations and the project at one end may have an impact on another, certain nations, like Egypt and Sudan, are worried about the welfare of their nation and their citizens as a result of this significant initiative.[Assefa M. Melesse, Wossenu Abtew, and Semu A. Moges, Nile and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Springer International Publishing, 2021).] [Fahmy Abdelhaleem and Esam Helal, “Impacts of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Different Water Usages in Upper Egypt,” British Journal of Applied Science &Amp; Technology 8, no. 5 (October 2015)] [Mariam Hassan and Mohamed Nour Al-Bosrati. "The Role of Internal and External Factors in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Crisis." (2022).] Status of Negations Ethiopia continued with its task even though there has been a GERD disagreement between both nations for more than ten years. Construction began in 2011, and in July 2021 the dam's filling phase began. Africa News reports that the project has advanced and that the third filling of the dam has been finished. While the neighbors to the downstream still object to these operations, progress is being made. Sudan is asking for an impartial assessment of the dam and its possible effects on Sudan, but Ethiopia has not signed any agreements assuring Egypt that this project will not ultimately be used as a weapon against Egypt, according to Aljazeera English discussion.[Fahmy Abdelhaleem, Impacts of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Different Water Usages in Upper Egypt.] [Al Jazeera, “What Is behind the Dispute over Africa's Largest Dam Project?,” Al Jazeera (Al Jazeera, June 28, 2020), https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2020/6/28/what-is-behind-the-dispute-over-africas-largest-dam-project.] Key Actors Involved The nations have enlisted a few third parties to help in the dispute settlement since they have been unable to resolve their disagreements and move forward. The United Nations Union has played a significant role in formulating the way forward, even though they were not initially intended to assume such a prominent role. The African Union first remained silent on the matter but has subsequently stepped in to arbitrate between the three nations; there have been several negotiations but they are still unable to come to a resolution. The World Bank is involved in other programs, but they have not helped much since Ethiopia will not let them.[Assefa M. Melesse, Nile and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.] Research purpose and mechanism This study examines the relationship—or lack thereof—between the nations of the Nile, notably Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, and the conflict that results from the GERD project using available literature on the subject. It examines the conflict's history, present circumstances, and potential resolutions. GERD Dilemma General Overview of the Nile Basin Dispute Nile River water conflicts between Egypt and Ethiopia are not new; they date back to the late 19th century. Egypt wanted to be in a position to control the flow of the Nile River, so they formed an agreement with Sudan to do so, which made it possible to build the High Aswan Dam (HAD). Ethiopia is not happy with the current situation; thus, they have been making an effort to use their legal entitlement to benefit from the Nile River.[Fahmy Abdelhaleem, Impacts of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Different Water Usages in Upper Egypt.] Ethiopia began the GERD project, which despite its lofty goals has not been well accepted by downstream nations, particularly Egypt. Egypt is the project's main critic, arguing that its citizens will be negatively impacted by the mechanics required to fill the GERD. Egypt is currently experiencing a water crisis as a result of its expanding population, and the Nile River is Egypt's primary source of water. Ethiopia claims that the GERD will benefit downstream countries and not harm other countries, but there is concern that the project will decrease Egypt's water supply. Depending on how long it will take Ethiopia to fill up its dam, Egypt's water supply might be reduced by 12 to 25%. This could also influence the Aswan High Dam (AHD), which produces electricity for Egypt; power output could be reduced. In the Aljazeera English debate, the Sudanese representative stated that Sudan's main concern is Ethiopia's poor control of water flow while continuing this project, which may cause them to overflow their dams. However, they do acknowledge the benefit of cheaper electricity that will result from the project, so they appear to be neutral in the situation.[Fahmy Abdelhaleem, Impacts of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Different Water Usages in Upper Egypt.] [Al Jazeera, “What Is behind the Dispute over Africa's Largest Dam Project?,”] Ethiopia's Position Concerning the Construction Process Ethiopia is confident that the building and filling of the GERD will not harm the nearby Nile nations. They think that this hydroelectric power will provide the neighbors with affordable electricity, and they think the engineering techniques they are using have fully taken into account the risks that the other nations face. They tell Sudan that their dams will not overflow as a consequence of this project and Egypt that there will not be a water problem as a result. Ethiopia asserts further that the GERD will not only prevent flooding in Sudan but will also control water flow at different times of the year.[Mariam Hassan. The Role of Internal and External Factors in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Crisis.] Downstream Countries' Concerns/Areas of Conflict The country of Egypt is the most concerned by this recent Ethiopian development. While being near a river's lower stream offers better opportunities for development, irrigation, etc., upper streams have significant control over the water flow to the lower streams. In the event of a conflict, upper streams have the advantage of being able to cut off the lower streams' access to water. The primary concern for Egypt, according to the Aljazeera English discussion (2020), is that their water supply may be cut off. Another concern, which is more political than technical, is that Ethiopia would use their progress as a weapon and withhold water from them. Aljazeera English claims that Sudan is also concerned since, despite assurances and promises that this development will not hurt them, they have not been given the chance to assess the water plant on their own.[Assefa M. Melesse, Nile and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.] [Al Jazeera, “What Is behind the Dispute over Africa's Largest Dam Project?,”] An Empirical Assessment of Benefits as Well as Risks and Impacts of GERD Filling/Operation Processes on Downstream Countries Numerous studies have been conducted on the Nile over the years, and great attention has also been paid to the contributing elements including climate change, and the rainy and dry seasons. Because it is impossible to forecast how much water will flow, a hydraulic system is tested in all directions before being declared functional or not. Fortunately, the flow has been there for a large number of years, so there is enough knowledge of how the system will operate for the Nile River. Different alternative periods have been tested in experiments; in this case, the effects that may occur in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt were taken into consideration. The study shows that results vary depending on the situation; they also suggest that if it occurs during a period of extreme drought, as the one in the 1980s, they may suffer as a result. However, when there is enough rainfall, it benefits all the participating nations.[Kevin G. Wheeler et al., “Understanding and Managing New Risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam,” Nature Communications 11, no. 1 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x.] [Kevin G. Wheeler, Understanding and Managing New Risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam,] Analysis of Negotiation and Mediation Efforts Historic Overview of Nile Water Treaties. Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty (1902) The Nile River was scarcely a part of the issue but was referenced in one section of the Anglo-Ethiopian 1902 treaty, which mostly concerned the borders of Ethiopia and Sudan. The Nile was not a topic of debate throughout the lengthy border negotiations when Sudan was ruled by Great Britain, and there was only one essay specifically devoted to addressing that issue. Both the English and the Amharic versions of the pact were created, although they were sadly worded differently. Additionally, the wording was inconsistent; the English version required Ethiopia to refrain from developing any infrastructure along the Blue Nile, the Sobat, or Lake Tana an...