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Mathematics & Economics
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Topic:
Moving Averages: Project Manufacturing Capacity Research (Coursework Sample)
Instructions:
Using the given set of data,
a) What is the project manufacturing capacity utilization for day 16 using a three day moving average?
b) What is the project manufacturing utilization for day 16 using a six day moving average?
c) Use the mean absolute deviation and mean square error to determine which average provide a better forecast.
DAY manufacturing utilization %
1 82.5
2 81.3
3 81.3
4 79
5 76.6
6 78
7 78.4
8 78
9 78.8
10 78.7
11 78.4
12 80
13 80.7
14 80.7
15 80.8
Content:
Using the given set of data,
* What is the project manufacturing capacity utilization for day 16 using a three day moving average?
LINK Excel.Sheet.12 "C:\\Users\\rono\\Documents\\On Going orders\\utilization.xlsx" Sheet1!R1C1:R19C3 \a \f 4 \h \* MERGEFORMAT
Day
Utilization %
3 day moving Avg
1
82.5
2
81.3
3
81.3
4
79
81.7
5
76.6
80.53
6
78
78.97
7
78.4
77.86
8
78
77.67
9
78.8
78.13
10
78.7
78.4
11
78.4
78.5
12
80
78.63
13
80.7
79.03
14
80.7
79.7
15
80.8
80.47
80.73
80.73
80.73
Day 16 projection = 80.73%
* What is the project manufacturing utilization for day 16 using a six day moving average?
Day 16 projection = 79.88%
Day
Utilization %
6 day moving Avg
1
82.5
2
81.3
3
81.3
4
79
5
76.6
6
78
7
78.4
79.78
8
78
79.1
9
78.8
78.55
10
78.7
78.13
11
78.4
78.08
12
80
78.38
13
80.7
78.72
14
80.7
79.1
15
80.8
79.55
79.88
79.88
79.88
* Use the mean absolute deviation and mean square error to determine which average provide a better forecast.
Mean absolute deviation and mean square error for 6 day moving average.
Day
Utilization %
6 day moving Avg
Error
Abs error
Error^2
1
82.5
2
81.3
3
81.3
4
79
5
76.6
6
78
7
78.4
79.78
-1.38
1.38
1.9044
8
78
79.1
-1.1
1.1
1.21
9
78.8
78.55
0.25
0.25
0.0625
10
78.7
78.13
0.57
0.57
0.3249
11
78.4
78.08
0.32
0.32
0.1024
12
80
78.38
1.62
1.62
2.6244
13
80.7
78.72
1.98
1.98
3.9204
14
80.7
79.1
1.6
1.6
2.56
15
80.8
79.55
1.25
1.25
1.5625
79.88
Total
10.07
14.2715
MAD
MSE
1.118888889
1.585722222
MAD = 1.12
MSE =1.56
Mean absolute deviation and mean square error for 3 day moving average.
Day
Utilization %
3 day moving Avg
Error
Absolute error
Error^2
1
82.5
...
* What is the project manufacturing capacity utilization for day 16 using a three day moving average?
LINK Excel.Sheet.12 "C:\\Users\\rono\\Documents\\On Going orders\\utilization.xlsx" Sheet1!R1C1:R19C3 \a \f 4 \h \* MERGEFORMAT
Day
Utilization %
3 day moving Avg
1
82.5
2
81.3
3
81.3
4
79
81.7
5
76.6
80.53
6
78
78.97
7
78.4
77.86
8
78
77.67
9
78.8
78.13
10
78.7
78.4
11
78.4
78.5
12
80
78.63
13
80.7
79.03
14
80.7
79.7
15
80.8
80.47
80.73
80.73
80.73
Day 16 projection = 80.73%
* What is the project manufacturing utilization for day 16 using a six day moving average?
Day 16 projection = 79.88%
Day
Utilization %
6 day moving Avg
1
82.5
2
81.3
3
81.3
4
79
5
76.6
6
78
7
78.4
79.78
8
78
79.1
9
78.8
78.55
10
78.7
78.13
11
78.4
78.08
12
80
78.38
13
80.7
78.72
14
80.7
79.1
15
80.8
79.55
79.88
79.88
79.88
* Use the mean absolute deviation and mean square error to determine which average provide a better forecast.
Mean absolute deviation and mean square error for 6 day moving average.
Day
Utilization %
6 day moving Avg
Error
Abs error
Error^2
1
82.5
2
81.3
3
81.3
4
79
5
76.6
6
78
7
78.4
79.78
-1.38
1.38
1.9044
8
78
79.1
-1.1
1.1
1.21
9
78.8
78.55
0.25
0.25
0.0625
10
78.7
78.13
0.57
0.57
0.3249
11
78.4
78.08
0.32
0.32
0.1024
12
80
78.38
1.62
1.62
2.6244
13
80.7
78.72
1.98
1.98
3.9204
14
80.7
79.1
1.6
1.6
2.56
15
80.8
79.55
1.25
1.25
1.5625
79.88
Total
10.07
14.2715
MAD
MSE
1.118888889
1.585722222
MAD = 1.12
MSE =1.56
Mean absolute deviation and mean square error for 3 day moving average.
Day
Utilization %
3 day moving Avg
Error
Absolute error
Error^2
1
82.5
...
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