Hindsight Bias (Essay Sample)

Hindsight bias
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The notion of hindsight bias focuses on people’s tendency to overestimate their ability to predict an outcome. After an outcome, there is a belief that one knew the outcome all along, even when the result is unexpected (Hardman, 2009). In other words one would say that he already knows about an event even before happening. The subject of bias is related to decision making and judgment, focusing on events and outcomes of such events (Hardman, 2009). In reality, things are more uncertain than we believe, but when dealing with the past and the future, feelings of uncertainty at present disappear as if one knew all along.
My personal experience shows that hindsight bias is indeed true. After breaking up with my boyfriend, I assumed and knew that he would call me. Nonetheless, he did not call me right away, but I knew that he would eventually call. This scenario shows that my assumptions and expectations were based on past history, where in good times my boyfriend would call me often. Even after the break up, I expected this to be the case, but things did not turn up as anticipated. Eventually, my boyfriend did call, but not after worrying and thinking too much about the breakup. This simply confirmed what I knew all along, but this was an overestimation of my ability to predict my boyfriend’s behavior.
Essentially, hindsight bias focuses on perceptions and intuitions about occurrence of an even...