Russia-Belarusia Bilateral Relations Research Assignment (Term Paper Sample)

Comenius University of Bratislava
Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences
Institute of European Studies and International Relations
Trends of Belarus-Russian relations under influence of Ukrainian crisis
Subject: Contemporary Eastern European Politics, Winter Semester 2014/2015
Student: Bc. Danilo Hinic MA1
Abstract
Main issue of concern is whether under influence of Ukrainian ties between Belarus and Russia are weakening or strengthening as there are indicators of both tendencies. Before approaching main issue general information on Russo-Belarusian relations and Ukrainian crisis will be presented. Main methods that will be used will be providing of cases which show distancing and strengthening of ties with taking into account interests of both states. From main findings tendency of distancing is based on claims of Lukashenka on disagreement with Russia on Ukraine, protectionism and on signs of turning towards EU which are based on preserving sovereignty and economic interests. Tendency of higher cooperation is much more visible and based on Eurasian integration and increasing common defense which are based on economic reliability and need of each other in both economy and safeguarding of security. It seems that they have more incentives to increase cooperation than to decrease but we will see what will be because Ukrainian crisis is ongoing and Eurasian Union is still developing.
Introduction
Bilateral relations between Republic of Belarus and Russian Federation have been very tight since break up of U.S.S.R. But since Ukraine crisis escalated and since Russia annexed Crimea and conflict in eastern Ukraine started relations between Belarus and Russia became more complicated. There appeared indicators which show distancing of Belarus and potential split in their common interests because of speeches of President Alexander Lukashenka against Russian involvement in Ukrainian crisis and annexation of Crimea. This shows possibility that Lukashenka feels insecure from similar scenario in his country like in Ukraine. But on another side cooperation deepens when we look at establishment of Eurasian Union in May 2014, strengthening economic ties and plans for further military cooperation, common defense project and common military drills. From this information which I followed I can define main problematic question that is about how Ukrainian crisis affected relations of Belarus and Russia and in which direction they are going. After brief overview of historical development of bilateral ties and defining main areas of cooperation, basic review of Ukrainian crisis first issue will be whether Belarus is trying to distance from Russia and in which way it does and what is background for such tendency. Second part will present indicators which show strengthening of Belarus-Russian ties in both economic and military aspect and interests and circumstances which push both countries to strengthen their ties will be taken into account. Analyzing these two sides of latest trends in relations between these two countries hopefully will help me to understand and present their relations under influence of Ukrainian crisis and whether they are more likely distancing or more deepening. Overview of nature of distancing/ tightening of relations will be analyzed with taking into account economic and security interests and circumstances of both states. Main methods for research task that was set above will be case study. It means that both for showing distancing but also strengthening of ties particular cases( statements, claims, concrete facts, circumstances and events) will be used what is supposed to strengthen main arguments of research question. Main interests and circumstances which lead to distancing and strengthening ties will be presented to support main arguments.
Historical overview of Belarus-Russian bilateral ties
Reviewing history of ties between Belarus and Russia can be good background for understanding current issues. Since U.S.S.R. dissolved and Belarus became independent country it maintained close relations with Russia and joined Commonwealth of Independent States. Also Russia and Belarus signed agreement under which State Union between these two states is established but they maintain independence. Union was supposed to increase economic and political cooperation between these two countries and in agreement on establishing of State Union were guaranteed equal rights for citizens and equal conditions for enterprises in both countries while sovereignty is respected. (Globalsecurity.org, 2014) For Belarus Russia became important economic partner as it exports there 1/3 of its exports (dairy and meat products, trucks, tractors, buses) while it buys oil and gas from Russia. (Globalsecurity.org, 2014) Economic cooperation between them and together with Kazakhstan deepened with purpose of Eurasian integration. Belarus needs to be close to Russia since it is isolated by EU because of not sufficient level of democratization. Despite some protectionist trends in their economies such as Russian protectionist policy on milk imports from Belarus which are mentioned in Wolffgang( 2013) their economic relations became closer and closer especially in establishing common market about which I will speak later. Except economic cooperation Belarus needs strong military ally with which it can safeguard its security more effectively. On official website of Ministry of Defence of Belarus is explained that there should be collective defense of Union State and that military trainings and preparation of armies to act in case of potential threat and aggression must exist through common trainings, common securing of airspace and joint drills. ( Ministry of Defence of Belarus, 2014). Russia has agreement with Belarus to use military airfields with aim to jointly secure airspace of Belarus and also they regularly conduct joint large scale drill known as Zapad( West). (Global Security.org, 2014). We see how these two states became reliable economic partners. Also we see how they became mutually reliable and dependent in military and security cooperation as for Belarus may be suitable to have protection of airspace and training from one of world strongest armies while for Russia it can be useful to safeguard its security beyond its borders.
Ukrainian Crisis
As we know Ukrainian crisis started in 2013. It is known by most people what happens there since it started as it was reported on almost every media in world. Protests against pro-Russian government finished by resigning of President Yanukovych and coming of pro-Western government. This caused change in Russian foreign policy towards Ukraine which since break up of Soviet Union was balancing between EU and Russia and was potential member of Eurasian Union. To secure geopolitically significant position and naval base in Crimea Russia intervened and annexed that part of Ukrainian territory. Soon in eastern Ukraine where large Russian population lives, rebellions and self-proclamations of two new republics( Peoples Republic of Donetsk and Peoples Republic of Lugansk) under support of Russia happened. Actually that what happens in Ukraine and Russian position in these issues became reason why relations between Russia and Belarus became unpredictable. Ukrainian crisis and Russian involvement there created two trends in relations between Russia and Ukraine. In next section will be analyzed first trend which emphasizes on some tendency of distancing of Belarus from close partnership with Russia.
Tendency of distancing
In part where distancing of relations will be analyzed focus is mainly on Belarus because as I found out it is country which expressed some tendencies in distancing from Russia. First shocking thing which happened since Ukraine crisis started is statement of President Lukashenka that Vladimir Putin is “biggest dictator in Europe”.( Kurir.rs, 2014) Here we see how publicly Lukashenka spoke about Vladimir Putin , president of its closest economic and military partner. Except calling Putin as dictator president of Belarus expressed disagreement with Russian involvement and position in Ukrainian crisis. On press conference Lukashenka strongly condemned annexation of Crimea considering it as unrespect of sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and violation of international law. ( Euromaidan press. 2014) From same article is visible that Lukashenka doesn’t support war in Donbas and said that this war must be resolved by talks and negotiations and that: “ Let us not lie to each other, if not for Russia DNR and LNR would have been over long time ago”.( Euromaidan Press. 2014) On same conference Lukashenka expressed that he regrets that nukes were removed from Belarus, that he isn’t afraid of Russian potential pretensions on Belarus territories and expressed dissatisfaction with small weapon supplies and losing money caused by Russian protectionism. ( Euromaidan Press. 2014). While Yanukovich was still struggling for staying in power Lukashenka supported stance of Russia but when stance of Russia got dimension of conquering territories of Ukraine and supporting rebellions than Lukashenka ceased to support Russia and refused to send observers to Crimea during referendum. (Foreign Affairs, 2014) In accusing Russia for violating sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and refusal to send observers to Crimea we can come to idea that Lukashenka became afraid for sovereignty and territorial integrity of his own country and that maybe one day Russia can do same in Belarus despite that he stated that he isn’t afraid of Russian intervention. Basis for this fear is quite relevant and based on fact that in Belarus 70% of population are Russian speakers and 8% are ethnic Russians. (WPR, 2014) As we see that this can be good ground for legitimizing potential intervention in name of Russian intere...