How Azerbaijan Took Advantage of Geopolitical Shifts to Time the Start of the Second Karabakh War (Thesis Sample)

How Azerbaijan Took Advantage of Geopolitical Shifts to Time the Start of the Second Karabakh War Student’s Name Institution of Affiliation Professor Course Date Table of Contents TOC \h \u \z \t "Heading 1,1,Heading 2,2,Heading 3,3,Heading 4,4,Heading 5,5,Heading 6,6,"Student’s Name0Table of Contents11.0 Introduction21.1 Background and Context21.2 Research Aim31.3 Research Objectives41.4 Research Question42.0 Literature Review52.1 Key Concepts and Definitions52.2 Territorial Disputes in the Origins of the Karabakh Conflict52.3 Geopolitical Shifts Preceding the Second Karabakh War72.4 Geopolitical Shifts and Conflict Dynamics in Post-Soviet Era92.6 Recent Anti-terror Mission and Developments within the Prolonged Conflict112.7 Theoretical and Conceptual Frameworks122.7.1 Rationalist Theory122.7.2 Balancing and Flexibility Theory122.7.3 Realism Perspective133.0 Methodology153.1 Research Design153.2 Sample Size153.3.2 Document analysis163.4. Variables163.5. Data Analysis163.5.1 Statistical Techniques163.5.2 Appropriateness and Assumptions173.6 Ethical Considerations173.7 Limitations of the Study183.8 Study Validity and Reliability18References19 How Azerbaijan Took Advantage of Geopolitical Shifts to Time the Start of the Second Karabakh War 1.0 Introduction 1.1 Background and Context The Second Karabakh War of 2020 was a turning point in the longstanding Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This long-standing dispute can be traced back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, which resulted in the independence of both states and set the stage for the geopolitical nature of the South Caucasus (Dumoulin & Gressel, 2023). Although a truce in 1994 ended the First Karabakh War, a permanent peace treaty continued to elude the newly independent republics, maintaining belligerence. Remarkably, the signs of the renewed hostilities continued, as Markedonov (2018) highlighted, which paved the way for the Second Karabakh War. It is significant to notice that, during the conflict, Armenians predominantly inhabited the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and they had a significant influence on the geopolitical landscape. On 27 September 2020, the Second Karabakh War broke out and came to an effort based on a truce agreement dated 10 November 2020. This agreement, negotiated by Russia, ended the conflicts and gave a new layout of territorial governance in this area (Dumoulin & Gressel, 2023). In other words, Azerbaijan retook the territories that it had lost during the first Nagorno-Karabakh war and its surroundings. By strategically reclaiming territories lost during the first conflict, Azerbaijan changed the status quo and made known how significant geopolitical shifts were causing wartime manipulations of timings. Azerbaijan and Armenia have taken different paths towards political, economic, and social development ever since they both gained independence from the Soviet Union. On the other hand, Armenia has been struggling through some issues with industrial production from the past Soviet era that led to it becoming identified as a lower-middle income economy whose economic performance is relatively poor. During the Second Karabakh War, two different realities of Azerbaijan and Armenia unfolded. Azerbaijan’s flourishing economy supported its powerful army and brought severe innovation. On the other hand, Armenia was struggling with economic constraints and thus required Russian military assistance for support during the war (Dumoulin & Gressel, 2023; Markedonov, 2018; SCR, 2023). The asymmetry of economic strength was a significant factor in determining war dynamics. The onset of the Second Karabakh War coincided with the peak of the global Coronavirus pandemic, adding complexity to the regional context. Several significant geopolitical events unfolded beyond the immediate borders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. In the macro-regional and global arenas, shifts were observed. While dealing with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia faced internal challenges, particularly related to the aftermath of the opposition leader Alexey Navalny's regime and the political crisis in Belarus. These geopolitical intricacies further influenced the context within which the 2020 war took place. Europe was dealing with the aftermath of Brexit while the United States was preparing for one of the most polarising elections in its history. Iran and Turkey were embroiled in a bitter rivalry over the South Caucasus region. (Hayrapetyan, 2022). Since taking over as the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan has gradually steered his country away from Russia in favor of the West (Derluguian and Hovhannisyan, 2022). This realignment played a crucial role in Russia's choice not to intervene in the war on the side of Armenia as it had done before. Justification of Study This study aims to understand better the most critical geopolitical shifts and strategic decisions leading to the Second Karabakh War in 2020. Since the collapse of the USSR, an intense conflict involving Nagorno-Karabakh and neighbouring Azerbaijan has occurred over a long period with several fluctuating stages stemming from complicated historical, ethnic and geopolitical reasons. The choice to attack the Second Karabakh War by Azerbaijan is a major geopolitical event, and analysing the dynamics driving this decision is essential for several reasons. The study touches on a gap left in the previous literature as it looks into what strategies Azerbaijan used when manoeuvring geopolitical changes to start the conflict. Though several studies have focused on historical factors of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, little attention has been paid to its intrinsical geopolitical changes that directly impacted Azerbaijan's decision-making process before the war. This research aims to fill this gap by offering a more subtle analysis of the strategic concerns and foreign policy goals that shaped Azerbaijan in post-Soviet times. Second, the study aids in the international relations and conflict study field, providing information about rationalist theories, balancing and flexibility dynamics, and realism perspectives informing state behaviour during conflict initiation. By getting into these theoretical models, the research not only explains why Azerbaijan takes specific actions but also develops from an academic point of view how such theories apply to the comprehension of modern conflicts. Additionally, the results of this project can guide policymakers, scholars, and practitioners working within conflict resolution geopolitics and regional security. Understanding why the Second Karabakh War occurred is central to developing future paths of diplomacy, peace-building attempts, and conflict prevention schemes in the South Caucasus. Finally, the timing of this study is relevant because the geopolitical scene continues to change, and we are yet to know what will come out of it for the region's stability. The current scenario has already altered territorial supremacy and brought new aspects to geopolitical disputes resulting from the conflict. Decoding these latest trends is highly insightful for the policymakers and the world community dealing with its consequences and seeking to establish a stable peace in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The research is thus justified as it can fill a scholarly gap, provide theoretical frameworks in the areas of concern to society researchers, guide practical policymaking and offer timely insights into an extremely busy geopolitical conflict. 1.2 Research Aim The article will critically analyze the skillful timely strategies with which Azerbaijan leveraged geopolitical changes in order to start Second Karabakh War, held in The theoretical lens provides the idea from Fearon’s 2015 theoretical framework, who draws such a distinction between wanted and unwanted wars that justifies leadersgot attitude toward war as “a calculated gamble worth making.” In this regard, the concept of wanted wars is seen as Pareto-efficient whereas they would occur when no negotiated settlements are better than a potential emerge of an armed confrontation. These studies aim to identify the factors or changes in the international scene that led to revitalizing the Second Karabakh War of 2020. This research deals with the strategic decisions and geopolitical issues which lead Azerbaijan to start the conflict. 1.3 Research Objectives * To determine the geopolitical shifts that took place before the start of the Second Karabakh War. * To explore how Azerbaijan took advantage of the geopolitical shifts to wage the long-awaited war with Armenia. * To examine how the timing of the war was a crucial factor for the eventual Azerbaijan victory. 1.4 Research Question Which factors or shifts in the regional and global arena triggered the resumption of the second Karabakh War in 2020? 2.0 Literature Review 2.1 Key Concepts and Definitions Strategy in warfare refers to the science or art of utilizing a state's military, political, economic, and other resources to achieve its war goals (Biddle, 2007). Strategy is distinguished from tactics and operations. Tactics refer to the specific techniques used to weaken or defeat the enemy, such as seizing a strategic town, attacking military installations of the enemy with missiles, and sinking a warship (Kelly and Brennan, 2009). Operations refer to the engagements used, which can either be in sequence or parallel and aim to achieve a specific purpose (Millett et al., 1986). An example of an operation is launching missiles or artillery fire towards the enemy's general direction. Strategy is the coordination of tactics and operations (Strachan, 2008). According to Volobiov (2008), time, space, and force are the most important factors of modern warfare. However, timing is considered the most critical factor in the art of war (Hanska, 2017). Timing refers to the political decision to us...