Investigation into the Thai Lottery Jackpot (Research Paper Sample)

An Investigation into the Expected Returns from Thailand Lottery versus Stock Market Investment <Author name> <Institutional affiliation> <Course number and name> <Instructor name> <Assignment due date> An Investigation into the Expected Returns from Thailand Lottery versus Stock Market Investment Abstract In this Internal Assessment (IA) report, comparative analysis was done on two investment options: the Thai Lottery and the stock market. Historical data was used to identify critical variables that affect the investment and its expected returns. To do this effectively, a hypothesis was formulated, followed by research to determine the validity of the hypothesis claim. As a result, regression modeling was deployed to check the relationships between the most critical variables. Thorough analyses and evaluations revealed that winning the Thai Lottery jackpot is difficult. With several tickets, a player may be lucky to win a prize depending on the six-digit number drawn. Regression of subsequent and consecutive draws posed results of making possible correct predictions to make a player fall into any of the five pools/packages – first, second, third, fourth, and fifth. Most importantly, the null hypothesis in this study, which stated that the lottery draws follow a normal distribution, was rejected. Consequently, a standard probability plot visualized the distribution. The stock market is a more worthy investment than the Thai Lottery. The tickets bought expire once the lottery is drawn, while the stock market investment remains at a standstill for an extended period. Therefore, expected returns from the stock market are more than those from the Thai Lottery. In most cases, the lottery players lose in all the tickets purchased. This is due to its low probability of winning and low return ratio (60%). In conclusion, the study recommended that investors prefer the stock market to the Thailand Lottery. Table of Contents TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u 1.INTRODUCTION PAGEREF _Toc176174691 \h 52.THE DESIGN PAGEREF _Toc176174692 \h 52.1.Research question PAGEREF _Toc176174693 \h 52.1.1.Aims and objectives PAGEREF _Toc176174694 \h 62.2.Background information PAGEREF _Toc176174695 \h 62.3.Hypothesis and explanation PAGEREF _Toc176174696 \h 62.4.Variables PAGEREF _Toc176174697 \h 72.5.Controls PAGEREF _Toc176174698 \h 72.6.Materials PAGEREF _Toc176174699 \h 72.7.Methodology and procedure PAGEREF _Toc176174700 \h 73.DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING PAGEREF _Toc176174701 \h 83.1.Data tables PAGEREF _Toc176174702 \h 83.2.2.2. Calculations PAGEREF _Toc176174703 \h 133.3.Graphs and charts PAGEREF _Toc176174704 \h 164.CONCLUSIONS PAGEREF _Toc176174705 \h 174.1.Results PAGEREF _Toc176174706 \h 174.2.Discussion PAGEREF _Toc176174707 \h 194.3.Evaluation and improvements PAGEREF _Toc176174708 \h 21References PAGEREF _Toc176174709 \h 22 1 INTRODUCTION The topic of choice in this study will be comparative analysis of the Thailand Lottery versus the stock market. Investors are interested in games with significant returns. Lottery games and the stock market are the leading influential investment options. This paper will investigate the best option for the two and gives an expected return for each. A research question will be formed and answered by formulating a null hypothesis. Typically, it is not easy to win in a lottery jackpot draw. The analysis and evaluation done in this paper explore the probability of winning the jackpot, or, at least, winning any prize when the lottery draw is done. More so, a comparative analysis is performed for the two investment options, and the one with the most returns is recommended. Critical analysis will be required before venturing into any of the investment options in focus. Analyses will utilize historical data to aid in predicting the expected returns using probability. This study will provide the formula for the expected returns. It concurs with other research and theories on gambling. Investment needs thorough research to ensure optimal returns. The research question will be answered satisfactorily at the end of this paper. 2 THE AIMS AND OBJECTIVES 1 Research question This report was set to investigate the possible returns from an investment in the Thai Lottery versus the stock market. It critically analyzes the lottery results and shows how an investor should calculate expected returns. Historical data was handy in determining the kind of distribution the Thai Lottery draws follow. The results were analyzed to assist in forecasting future draws and answer the research question of whether an investor can be profitable with the lottery. To answer this research question effectively, a null hypothesis was formulated. A model was developed to test a null hypothesis and check whether it should be rejected. With these, an alternative hypothesis can be generated. 1 Aims and objectives The main objective of this internal assessment report was to understand the variables that affect the Thailand Lottery and the stock market. The objectives of the report were: * To understand the probabilistic distribution of possibilities that surround the Thailand Lottery * To calculate the expected returns for buying Thai lottery tickets regularly * To analyze historical data of the Thai stock market * To predict the future trends of the market using historical datasets 2 Background information The Government Lottery Office (GLO) oversees Thailand's official national lottery. Every month, the Thai lottery is drawn on the first and sixteenth. It is one of only two legal gambling activities permitted in Thailand, the other being Bangkok horse racing. Despite the low payout ratio and limited chances of winning, the lottery is viral in Thailand. According to Piriya-rangsan (2004), Compared to global averages of 74% for bingo, 81% for horse racing, 89% for slot machines, and 98% for blackjack (introductory rules), the Thai lottery has a payout ratio of 60%. In Thailand, it is the most popular form of legal gamingCITATION Pir04 \l 1033 (Piriya-rangsan, 2004). 3 Hypothesis and explanation The test being scrutinized ought to show whether the Thai Lottery draws follow a normal distribution. This is important because it could aid in estimating the returns and future results. Therefore, the null hypothesis was that the Thai lottery draw results follow a normal distribution. 4 Variables The variables of interest for this research were the returns expected from a gambling scenario and the probability of getting those returns. The chances of getting a winning number and correcting the last two digits were evaluated for the Thai Lottery. These variables were handy in plotting charts and creating key data tables. 5 Controls The fixed dates for the Thai Lottery draws are the first and sixteenth of every month. Therefore, the controllability of this analysis shows that only the numbers change while the dates are fixed. A lucky number (number 9 in Thailand) is also another critical control investors would consider in order to match the lottery digits. 6 Materials Historical data, which was very useful for this study, was extracted from an online website (https://thethaiger.com/thai-lottery/16-08-2024) CITATION Tha24 \l 1033 (Thaiger, 2024). Most of the analysis and calculations were done in Microsoft Excel. 7 Methodology and procedure A detailed investigation requires critical analysis and evaluation of relevant and reliable datasets. The datasets used for this study were extracted from an online site that gives live draw results twice a month. To confirm the validity of the data, YouTube live videos of the draws were used. After data extraction, the datasets were structured into an Excel spreadsheet for easy analysis and visualization. Those methods define how tables, graphs, and calculations are made. The other content of this research consists of other authors' opinions and theories on gambling – particularly on the Thai Lottery and the stock market. 3 DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING 8 Data tables The following table shows the results of the winning tickets and the results of the last two digits of the Thai Lottery draws, beginning from August 1, 2023, to April 16, 2024. The data highlighted in yellow shows the test results – these values indicate dates past April 16, 2024. Predictive analysis checks the model's efficiency by consecutively testing the next four lottery draws. A scatter plot is used to visualize where the following points lie and the accuracy of this criteria in creating the six-digit lottery ticket. Table SEQ Table \* ARABIC 1: Historical data for the Thai Lottery Thailand Lottery Results Date Winning Ticket Last 2 digits 8/1/2023 260453 11 8/16/2023 471782 67 9/1/2023 915478 91 9/16/2023 320812 46 10/1/2023 727202 66 10/16/2023 931446 44 11/1/2023 743951 63 11/16/2023 557990 14 12/1/2023 251097 91 12/16/2023 356757 85 1/1/2024 625544 89 1/16/2024 105979 61 2/1/2024 607063 9 2/16/2024 961395 43 3/1/2024 253603 79 3/16/2024 997626 78 4/1/2024 803481 90 4/16/2024 943598 79 5/1/2024 980116 5/16/2024 205690 6/1/2024 530593 6/16/2024 518504   Yellow indicate Sample prediction Results The two digits refer to the last two digits of the winning ticket. These digits have different prizes and the way they appear (their format) is followed, strictly. Every ticket has a unique number. This part is popular amongst Thais as they perceive it as an easier way of winning cash prizes. Two digits part provides opportunity for winning smaller returns which ar...